Consumer sentiment got another hit in March, according to the University of Michigan’s latest sentiment survey released Friday.
This study recorded readings in the mid-57.9. This represents a 10.5% decline since February, below the Dow Jones Consensus estimate of 63.2. Reading was under 27.1% a year ago, the lowest since November 2022.
The current condition index has decreased by 3.3%, but future expected measures have decreased by 15.3% per month, and 30%, from the same period in 2024.
Additionally, fears are rising where President Donald Trump is heading for tariffs on US trading partners. A new aluminum and steel duties came into effect Wednesday, and this week the president threatened 200% tariffs on European Union liquor after the EU hit US whiskey and other goods with a 50% tax.
The one-year outlook surged to 4.9%, up 0.6 percentage points from February, rising to its highest reading since November 2022. On the five-year horizon, the outlook has risen to 3.9% on the five-year horizon, which has risen at its highest level by 0.4 percentage points since February 1993.
The stocks mostly brushed the report off, and Treasury yields moved higher, but retained active territory.
The measure tends to have disparities between the parties in many cases, but investigators said they gave up across the partisan line, along with virtually all demographics.
“Many consumers cited a high level of uncertainty about policies and other economic factors. The frequent turnover of economic policies makes it extremely difficult for consumers to plan for the future, regardless of their policy preferences,” said Joanne HSU, director of the study. “Consumers in all three political alliances agree that their outlook has been weakening since February.”
HSU said Republicans had expectations of 10%, Democrats fell 24%, independents fell 12%, and independents fell 12%. Sentiment has fallen 22% overall since December.
The inflation outlook was inconsistent with reports earlier this week, with consumer prices rising more than expected and wholesale prices rising in February.
The market is primarily looking forward to the Federal Reserve, which aims to achieve a 2% inflation rate when it closes its two-day meeting on Wednesday. However, according to CME Group’s futures pricing calculations, traders are priced at 0.75% interest rate reduction points by the end of the year, starting in June.
Modification: Joanne Hsu is the director of the investigation. Previous versions spelled her name wrong.
