Jeff Coe, principal analyst at CoinEx Research, said the typical altcoin rally is likely to wane next year, with only “blue chip” cryptocurrencies accounting for the majority of liquidity.
“Retail investors who were expecting a rising tide to lift all boats will be disappointed,” Koh told Cointelegraph. “We do not expect there to be a traditional alternative season. Instead, liquidity will be ruthlessly selective and will only flow to the best companies that have actually been deployed.”
Koh expects a “moderate global liquidity tailwind in 2026” due to differences in central bank policies, but added that Bitcoin’s historical sensitivity to M2 money supply growth “has slowed since the introduction of the ETF in 2024, and the correlation has declined.”
He added that the company’s “baseline scenario is for Bitcoin to reach $180,000 by 2026.”
But not all analysts agree, with veteran analyst Peter Brandt predicting another long bear market.
Bitcoin will reach its next peak in 2029
Veteran futures trader Brandt said Tuesday that Bitcoin has experienced five parabolic rises on a logarithmic scale in 15 years, followed by declines of at least 80%, but “the current cycle is not over yet.”
But when asked about the bottom of this cycle, he said, “I expect the next bull market high to be in September 2029.”
This prediction is fully consistent with the four-year cycle theory, with the peak occurring one year after the half-life event (scheduled around April 2028). However, an 80% drop like we saw in previous cycles could send BTC crashing to $25,000 before that happens.
Is the 4 year cycle over?
Historically, the fourth quarter of the year has often been one of Bitcoin’s strongest periods. According to Coinglass, Bitcoin posted the largest quarterly gain in eight of the past 12 fourth quarters, but only one of those was a single-digit gain.
Related: Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand Shrinks, Signs of New Bear Market: Analyst
However, Bitcoin is down more than 22% quarter-over-quarter, making it the second-worst fourth quarter in history.
“This typically means the market has flushed out a ton of excess risk and weak positioning,” macro investment feed Milk Road said on Monday.
“Therefore, upside is not automatically guaranteed in 2026, but historically cycles that end with a strong reset tend to have better conditions for building strength.”
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $88,000, down 30% from its all-time high in October.
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