The SOPR for short-term BTC holders has fallen to around 0.97 and has remained below 1.0 for several weeks, a pattern seen near past cycle bottoms.
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced one of the most severe waves of panic selling by buyers in recent times, with on-chain data showing short-term holders (STH) outflowing their assets with heavy losses.
According to analysts, this violent capitulation is creating the potential for a major reversal in the market as weak investors exit and long-term investors accumulate.
Extreme stress for short-term holders
New on-chain measurements shared by XWIN Research show that Bitcoin’s short-term holder expenditure return (STH-SOPR) has fallen to around 0.97 and has remained below 1.0 in recent weeks. This means that those who bought Bitcoin over the past few months are selling at an average loss, creating what the company calls a “surrender band” that has previously only appeared near major turning points in the Bitcoin cycle.
The MVRV ratio for short-term holders is also well below 1.0, indicating that the same group of investors is underwater and one of the weakest stages of profitability in the dataset. According to XWIN, more than 65,000 BTC has been transferred to exchanges at a loss, showing that fear is manifested not only in theory but also in real selling.
At the same time, pseudonymous analyst Dirkforst pointed out that while short-term holders are dominating the daily flows, long-term holders (LTH) are applying substantial selling pressure. They shared spending transaction output (STXO) data that shows STH flows remain high but relatively balanced, while LTH STXO has spiked, noting that such patterns are typically seen near market tops and during major stress events.
Surrender in fear to retail
Looking at the market, BTC is trading at around $91,000, down around 13% over the past week and around 18% over the past 30 days, but has been roughly flat over the past 12 months. The premium cryptocurrency has hovered between about $90,000 and $94,000 over the past 24 hours, still about 27% below October’s all-time high of $126,000.
Additionally, data shows that small BTC wallets have shed around 0.36% of their holdings in just five days, with similar sell-offs in ETH and XRP, reflecting severe retail uncertainty. The Fear and Greed Index also recently fell to a nine-month low, mirroring levels last seen during the Great Market Panic.
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However, some long-term signals appear to be more constructive. For example, Bitcoin’s realized losses recently reached around -16%, which has been on the verge of recovery in previous cycles. Analysts also reported 30 days of record demand from long-term “perpetual” holders and new accumulation from buyers such as El Salvador, which just added over 1,000 BTC during the selloff.
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