Volunteers load boxes of food into cars during an event hosted by the Community Food Bank of New Jersey in partnership with Bergen County to deliver emergency food relief to federal workers and SNAP recipients during the U.S. government shutdown, Nov. 6, 2025 in Leonia, New Jersey, U.S.
Mike Seeger | Reuters
Consumer sentiment is at its lowest level in more than three years and on the verge of its worst level on record as concerns about a government shutdown rose in early November, according to a University of Michigan survey released Friday.
The university’s monthly Consumer Sentiment Index hit a reading of 50.3, representing a decline of 6.2% month-over-month and approximately 30% year-over-year. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected 53.0, after 53.6 in October. The last time sentiment was this low was in June 2022, as inflation hovered near a 40-year high. November’s measurements were the second lowest since at least 1978.
Research director Joan Hsu said concerns about the impasse in Washington outweighed consumer fears and rising sentiment from new record highs in stock prices.
“As the federal government shutdown continues for more than a month, consumers are now expressing concerns about the potential negative economic impact,” Su said. “This month’s decline in sentiment was felt across the population, regardless of age, income, or political affiliation.”
Similar findings were found for other indicators in the study.
The current situation index fell to 52.3, down nearly 11% from last month and the lowest level since 1951, while the future expectations index fell 2.6% to 49.0. Year-over-year, these two metrics decreased by 18.2% and 36.3%, respectively.
“Across the economy, segments of the population are facing increasingly difficult financial conditions,” said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at consumer finance website NerdWallet. “That’s certainly true for federal employees and people who rely on federal food assistance. But it’s also likely to be true for middle-income Americans as well.”
Inflation indicators were relatively subdued and the long-term outlook weakened.
The one-year outlook rose slightly to 4.7%, while the five-year outlook fell 0.3 points to 3.6%.
During the government shutdown, the collection and release of government economic data has been halted, making metrics like the Michigan Sentiment Survey more important as a proxy measure of economic development.
As with other indicators, the study found some disparity in income levels, particularly in asset holdings. Mr Hsu said sentiment among the largest stockholders actually improved by 11%.
