“What I realized about the Rockies is that Rockies fans appear regardless of the team’s performance,” said Scott Powers, an assistant professor of sports analysis and statistics at Rice University. “But if revenue is not performance dependent, there is certainly less incentive (as team owners improve their teams).
And so far this year, there may be some miserable mention of bad luck.
Colorado’s -89 disparity (106 runs scored and 195 surrenders) is the worst in MLB, but it’s the Rockies’ Pythagoras win rate. This is a formula that roughly estimates the number a team should have based on the runs they scored and surrendered, resulting in eight-win hair from these 34 games.
Powers, assistant general manager of the Houston Astros, says his formula and its variations are important to the work that many major league front offices do.
“The big thing is that you’re going to get some outliers, you’re going to get some outliers, and those outliers are due to the combination of performance and luck,” Powers said.
But does that mean there is hope for the Rockies?
“It depends on what you mean by your wish,” Powers said. “If your hope is to run away with the division and do goodbye in the first round of the playoffs, that hope may be misguided. But if your hope is to avoid losing 120 games, I think it’s a very low probability at this point.
