The key to determining the cause of the still-raging Palisades fire lies at the top of the brush-covered hill where the fire broke out just after 10:30 a.m. Tuesday.
Fire investigators are still working to determine the cause of the inferno fires, but experts say it’s easy to rule out lightning strikes, one of the common causes of wildfires. . There has been no severe weather in the area this week. There also appear to be no power lines or transformers in the area near Temescal Ridge Trail, ruling out another potential cause.
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This makes humans the source of most wildfires. But was it the result of arson? Four experts interviewed by NBC News said they believed the fire was likely not intentionally set, although that is possible.
“This is what we call inaccessible, rugged terrain,” said Rick Crawford, a former battalion chief with the Los Angeles Fire Department. “Arsonists typically set fires 500 feet from the trailhead through trees and brush and then have no intention of fleeing.”
Fires are constantly occurring in the forested areas outside Los Angeles, many of them unintentionally started by homeless people. Due to the lack of strong winds, fires are unlikely to develop into destructive blazes. A combination of fierce winds and a dry landscape created ideal conditions for the fast-moving fires that ravaged large swathes of Los Angeles this week.
“You don’t need a bunch of arsonists to go out there and start a fire, nature will do it for you,” said Scott Fischer, a former federal law enforcement arson investigator.
“There are arsonists out there,” he added, “but are there groups of arsonists running around Los Angeles right now? Not likely.”
However, copycat arson is a known phenomenon. Experts said they would not be surprised if one of the smaller fires that followed the Palisades fire was intentionally set.
“When you have a big fire like this in Los Angeles, it can sometimes inspire people to get out and start a fire,” said Terry Taylor, a former wildland fire investigator who now works as an instructor. “It’s a counterfeit product. … That happens sometimes.”
Taylor and other experts said such an answer is unlikely to come soon, as determining arson tends to require lengthy investigations.
Eaton Fire
The Eaton Fire, Los Angeles’ second deadliest fire, was not likely started by an arsonist, experts say. The eruption occurred Tuesday night in an area east of Altadena where high-voltage power lines hover overhead.
Fire experts said their first consideration was power lines, given the area and weather conditions. Strong winds can slam the line and send small balls of super-hot molten metal flying around.
“If the ground is really dry and the wind is blowing, you know there’s a fire,” said Ed Nordkog, a former Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department detective who spent his career investigating arsonists. Ta.
But that’s just one possible scenario. The fire could also have been started by someone operating a camp stove, car or lawn mower, spewing hot sparks onto dry grass, Norskog said.
As for the possibility that it was set up intentionally, Nordskog said that was unlikely.
“Most of the time, these fires are not arson,” he says. “There is no data to support that wind summons arsonists.”
“Inch by inch”
Experts say determining the cause of the fire is a highly specialized and arduous task.
The first step is to determine where the problem started. Burn marks and charred debris can provide important clues.
Next comes the most detailed and labor-intensive part of the process. Investigators set up a grid, usually with string, at the scene and literally crawl on all fours looking for footprints and other clues.
Investigators often use metal detectors, magnifying glasses, and even binoculars to aid in their investigations.
“They’re going to go step by step and it’s going to take hours,” Norskog said. “It’s not fun.”
In the case of the Eaton fire, investigators will likely use magnets to look for small pieces of molten metal that could have fallen if the wires collided. But the presence of metal doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the start of a fire, Nordkog said.
“We need to find out whether sparks from the power lines were already ignited or whether this was the cause of the fire,” he said. “There’s so much going on in the investigation, so many factors. Anyone who can immediately tell us what caused the fire must have seen it.”
If investigators find evidence that a fire was caused by a human, they must determine whether it was caused by an accident, negligence, or intentional act.
John Abatzoglou, a climatology professor at the University of California, Merced, studied 30 years of government fire occurrence data for Los Angeles County. It found that accidents involving vehicles and other equipment were the most common cause of wildfires from 1992 to 2020.
“More than 95% of these fires are human-caused,” he wrote in an email. “Although arson is one cause, most human-caused fires are unintentional.”
“The best players in this world”
The prospect of an arsonist setting Los Angeles ablaze gained attention on social media on Thursday after a group of people in Woodland Hills detained a man suspected of setting trash on fire. The man was arrested, but there was not enough probable cause to charge him with arson, police officials said Friday. Instead, he was arrested for a felony probation violation.
In addition to the Palisades and Eaton fires, there were four other fires throughout Los Angeles. The cause is still under investigation.
A law enforcement committee was set up to determine the cause of the fire. The local agencies involved, the Los Angeles Fire Department, Police Department, County Sheriff’s Department, and Cal Fire, are considered to be among the most skilled in the country. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives is leading the investigation.
“Everything is completely on the table,” Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna said at a news conference Saturday.
It could take several days for investigators to determine the cause of the fire. Experts say it could take months or even years to determine whether human-caused fires are criminal acts.
The death toll from the fire has reached 24, and efforts to investigate the cause are expected to continue for as long as it takes.
“We’re going to have the best players to solve problems,” said Crawford, a retired Los Angeles battalion chief.
