Los Angeles fires are the worst-case scenario that experts predicted and feared

For the Los Angeles area, the recent series of wildfires represents the worst-case scenario. After months of no significant rain, unusually strong and prolonged Santa Ana winds hit. But the severe effects of the fires are surprising, according to an NBC News review of past fire post-mortem reports, wildfire risk maps, wildfire risk public meetings, and interviews with fire experts. It is said that it is not.

“It’s completely foreseeable,” said Char Miller, a professor of environmental analysis and history at Pomona College.

The fire forced the evacuation of about 180,000 people, knocked out power to about 500,000 customers, and destroyed thousands of homes.

“We’ve been building homes deep in fire zones. We know it’s a fire zone, we know it’s dangerous, and yet city halls and county governments are increasingly We continue to greenlight development in high-risk locations,” Miller said. “It’s a combination of all the undesirable factors.”

Los Angeles County has a higher risk of wildfires to homes than 99% of U.S. counties, according to a federal analysis. Pacific Palisades, Hollywood Hills and Altadena are the three areas where the fires are occurring, according to Los Angeles Fire Department and state maps, and are at “very high fire risk.”

“It’s not a matter of if, but when,” said Joe Scott, chief fire scientist at wildfire risk consultancy Pyrologics, which worked on the federal analysis. “But this is the high end of what could happen.”

The post-mortem after the Woolsey Fire in November 2018 reported problems similar to those faced by firefighters today.

The flames shot across the Santa Monica Mountains toward homes on the Malibu coast, spreading flames up to a mile from the front line and forcing the evacuation of 250,000 people. More than 1,000 homes were destroyed in Ventura and Los Angeles counties.

The report described it as a “perfect storm”.

The report said the speed and intensity of the fire “overwhelmed resources on the scene” and noted that the dead-end canyon road made access for evacuation and firefighting efforts difficult. The review said that given the weather and fire department limitations, initial responses in Malibu and along the Pacific Coast Highway should have focused on protecting life and providing safety, rather than protecting property. But the public and policymakers did not fully understand that reality, the report said.

“The public has a sense that public institutions will always protect them. As the scale of the Woolsey Fire shows, this is not always possible,” the report said, putting the death toll at 3. He praised the first responders who kept the situation under control.

It concluded that adding more fire engines and taking steps to better prepare homes for potential fires may not be enough to protect new developments in fire-prone areas.

“Even if the current fire weather cycle were to stop, it would likely occur again,” the report said.

This week, that prediction came true. Los Angeles County Fire Chief Anthony Malone said Wednesday that given the weather conditions, there were not enough firefighters to deal with the situation.

“Los Angeles County and all 29 fire departments within the county are unprepared for this type of widespread disaster. Los Angeles County does not have enough firefighters to fight four fires this large. “No,” Marrone said, noting that firefighters were pre-deployed to the Santa Monica Mountains ahead of the fire. “This is not a normal red flag.”

Part of the difficulty in putting out fires in the Woolsey Fire and the current fire-affected areas has to do with geography.

The Pacific Palisades is where suburbia meets the windswept hillsides of the wilderness. Luxury homes, whose median price was more than $3.4 million in the ZIP code last year, are located in an ecology with thick fire-prone chaparral plants, including manzanita, scrub oak, and chamise, also known as greasewood, according to data provided by Zillow. surrounded by systems.

Before European settlement, these ecosystems were expected to burn once every 30 to 130 years. According to the California Wildfire and Forest Resilience Task Force, fires caused by human activities are currently expected to occur every 20 years or less in densely populated areas.

Robert Gray, a Canadian wildfire ecologist and former wildland firefighter, said the chaparral ecosystem is known for intense, wind-driven fires.

“There are too many of these chaparral fires to list, and they cause significant damage to urban areas,” Gray said, adding that the plants contain volatile chemicals that can increase the height of flames. He added that there is.

In Los Angeles County, hilly sprawl currently “means that fires jump from roof to roof as they roar through,” Miller said.

California has invested in fire risk reduction programs at the city, county, and state levels, and has dedicated significant resources and personnel to firefighting operations throughout the year. In July, Congress extended the peak season for firefighting personnel from five months to nine months.

The city and county of Los Angeles implemented a brush removal program designed to give homeowners “defensible space” to fight fires. The Pacific Palisades and Hollywood Hills are in areas considered “very high fire hazard areas,” meaning homeowners must mow brush, remove trees, and maintain clean roofs. State law also requires an inspection before a home can be sold.

Gray said interventions such as installing fire-resistant roofs and other measures can be effective if all neighbors work hard.

“If your neighbor doesn’t do that and your neighbor’s house catches fire, radiant heat alone can counteract it,” he said.

Insurers are becoming increasingly cautious given the high risks. In March, State Farm did not renew coverage for about 30,000 property and casualty policyholders in California, including more than 1,600 in Pacific Palisades. As of September, more than 1,400 homeowners in the Pacific Palisades were insured by California’s FAIR Plan, the last insurer.

Add exceptionally dry conditions (Los Angeles hasn’t had significant rain since July) and dangerous stormy winds to an already fragile situation. That’s the cocktail behind this week’s fires, a confluence of dangers that fire officials have been concerned about for months.

“Right now, there isn’t much rain in Southern California, especially along the coast, so the low humidity and strong winds have created conditions that are conducive to wildfires,” said Anal Barlew, chief deputy for the California Department of Forestry. said. Cal Fire said this at a meeting of the California Wildfire Task Force after the Franklin Fire burned more than 4,000 acres near Malibu last month.

California Natural Resources Secretary Wade Crowfoot said at the conference that the state’s “fire season has become a fire year.”

“We are currently facing a bushfire situation across the state that has not let up in any way for 12 months,” he said.

Winter wildfires in California are often caused by Santa Ana winds that blow down mountain slopes and suck moisture from coastal areas. Fires that start can be quickly pushed forward by wind, especially if the ground is dry.

Typically, high pressure is trapped in the San Gabriel Mountains, so Santa Ana winds occur when the pressure leaks through the valleys. But on Tuesday, Santa Anas was able to climb over the mountain and send storms downhill toward the Pacific Palisades and Pasadena.

“These are typically better protected areas,” says Robert Faubel, a professor of atmospheric and environmental science at the University at Albany.

He added that forecasters had accurately predicted this wind event, adding: “It would be reasonable to characterize this as well-anticipated from a meteorological standpoint.”

Miller, of Pomona College, said when Santa Ana’s winds reach high speeds, options for protecting property become limited.

“Once that happens and there’s a fire, there’s nothing you can do to stop it,” he said. “When you’re driving with 40, 50, 60, 70 mph winds, there’s not much firefighters can do.”

Research does not suggest that Santa Ana wind events are becoming more likely due to climate change. But Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said rising temperatures and prolonged droughts are increasing the likelihood that fires are more likely to start during periods of strong winds.

“Climate change is increasing the overlap between extremely dry late-season vegetation conditions and the occurrence of these wind events,” he said in a recent YouTube talk.

Swain is the lead author of the study, published Wednesday in Nature Reviews, which is based on “hydroclimatic whiplash,” a term used to describe sudden swings between wet and dry weather. ) is accelerating around the world. California, which has experienced major flooding the past two winters, is a good example.

“This whiplash incident in California doubles the fire risk,” Swain said in a news release. “First, the growth of flammable grass and brush increases significantly in the months leading up to the fire season, and then the subsequent extreme dryness and warmth drives flammable grass and brush growth to very high levels. This is done by drying it.