The ongoing developments within corporate Bitcoin holdings have taken a notable turn as MSCI, one of the world’s leading providers of financial indexes, announced new eligibility rules. These regulations could potentially impact significant digital asset treasury firms, including Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.
Potential Index Implications
Strategy, alongside other companies like Metaplanet, faces the prospect of being excluded from the MSCI Global Investable Market Index due to its classification as a “non-operating” entity. The definitive roster of affected companies will be published on November 11, with the changes set to take effect at the end of November.
Analysts from JPMorgan have projected that such a removal could lead to about $2.8 billion in passive outflows from the company. However, Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant, posits that the potential risks are already factored into Strategy’s current market valuation. Ju emphasizes that the capital flow issue represented by MSCI is already reflected in the stock price of MSTR, Strategy’s ticker symbol.
Analyst Perspectives on Strategy’s Valuation
Despite the looming MSCI changes, Ju believes that major financial institutions maintain aggressive price targets for MSTR. He noted that estimates from firms such as Citigroup ($240), Barclays ($175), and B. Riley ($195) suggest a bullish outlook among analysts, often expecting price targets to increase rather than decrease. Ju stated, “Analysts don’t care about MSCI. $MSTR consensus remains very bullish.”
Furthermore, he outlined that Strategy’s stability is underscored by critical factors such as a 1x market cap to Bitcoin net asset value (NAV), alongside significant cash reserves to ensure dividend obligations are met.
Citi $240, Barclays $175, B. Riley $195. Goals go up, not down.
MSCI is a story of flow, and it is interwoven. All that matters now is mNAV ~1.0x, STRC par, and $3.75 billion in reserves to cover dividends. https://t.co/NWKtUrVVaM
— Ki Young-ju (@ki_young_ju) October 16, 2026
Michael Saylor Responds to MSCI Changes
In the lead-up to the MSCI’s finalization, Michael Saylor, the former CEO of Strategy, downplayed the implications of potential index exclusion. He characterized the affected capital as relatively minor from the company’s broader perspective. Saylor argued that the distinction drawn by MSCI, which recognizes traditional assets like oil and gas while dismissing Bitcoin, reflects a biased valuation system. He asserted that digital assets will continue to play a pivotal role in the financial landscape, irrespective of MSCI’s viewpoint.
Market responses have exhibited some volatility; following the announcement, MSTR saw a sharp decrease, falling from a high of over $151 to below $137 within a single day. Nevertheless, Strategy remains robust, maintaining a significant hold of 848,250 Bitcoin after its latest acquisition, disclosed on October 12.
As the landscape continues to evolve, the impact of regulatory frameworks on digital assets remains a crucial focal point for investors, analysts, and companies navigating the intersection of traditional finance and emerging technologies.
