On September 10, 2026, shoppers were seen at a grocery store in Chicago, Illinois.
Photo by Scott Olson | Getty Images.
Consumer Price Index Forecast
Analysts are closely monitoring the upcoming consumer price index (CPI) data, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in inflation as energy prices continue to rise. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones predict a monthly rise of 0.6% in the headline CPI for September, resulting in a 3.6% year-over-year increase. This figure signals an acceleration in the rate of price growth, moving further from the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2%.
In contrast, core inflation—excluding the typically volatile categories of food and energy—is expected to rise by 0.2% from August and by 2.5% over the past year. Although this reflects a slight deceleration from the prior month, it marks an uptick in the annual inflation rate.
Factors Contributing to Inflationary Pressures
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, highlighted that rising oil prices could further elevate the CPI. Since the onset of the U.S. war with Iran earlier this year, energy costs have played a significant role in driving inflation. Following President Donald Trump’s recent decision to relax diesel restrictions on Russia to stimulate the global oil market, analysts remain skeptical regarding its immediate effect on prices.
During September, prices for Brent crude, the benchmark for global oil, surged over 14%, culminating in approximately a 42% hike for the third quarter. As of Tuesday, Brent crude was trading around $105 per barrel.
Brusuelas stated, “We’ve got real upside risk on the September CPI. Typically, when we have these moves in inflation, everyone’s models undershoot the actual outcome.”
Persistent high oil prices may also contribute to rising costs in other sectors, complicating the Federal Reserve’s ability to dismiss the spike in energy prices as a temporary aberration that does not warrant interest rate adjustments.
Federal Reserve’s Response to Inflation
Following its first rate increase in three years last month, the Federal Reserve indicated in its meeting minutes that additional rate hikes might be on the horizon. The futures market, as indicated by CME’s FedWatch tool, suggests that traders anticipate another rate increase during the Fed’s policy meeting in December.
Robert Sockin, chief U.S. economist at PGIM, remarked, “The list of reasons to hike rates in our view is long. Ultimately, we have low confidence in the timing of the Fed’s next move, but more conviction on the direction of travel.”
Political Implications and Consumer Sentiment
This upcoming CPI release is particularly noteworthy as it is the last data point before the midterm elections in November, which may significantly influence the political landscape in Washington.
Recent data from the University of Michigan indicates declining economic confidence across various political affiliations this year, with Republican and independent voters experiencing sharper drops in sentiment compared to Democrats since the beginning of 2026.
Producer Price Index Outlook
On Thursday, the producer price index (PPI), another critical measure of inflation affecting wholesalers, is expected to reflect a 0.6% rise from August to September and a 5.5% increase year-over-year. Both projections indicate a modest acceleration compared to August’s figures.
