According to a report in the Financial Times, Kalsi is in talks to raise new capital at a valuation of $40 billion, nearly double the $22 billion it was quoted in its Series F round in May 2026 just a few weeks ago.
The $40 billion figure is nearly three times the $15 billion that rival Polymarket is said to be targeting. The central tension this story forces on the table is that a valuation that has changed about 20 times in 12 months deserves more scrutiny than a fundraising press release typically receives.
With ongoing regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets and much controversy surrounding Kalsi’s IPO, it is unlikely that the company will become a public company until the situation is resolved.
What actually is calci and why is its structure important?
Kalshi is not a crypto exchange or sportsbook. It is a federally regulated event contract exchange and operates under the supervision of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Think of this as a stock exchange. However, instead of Apple stock, users trade binary contracts based on the probabilities of real-world outcomes, such as whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, which political party will win a Senate seat, and who will advance in a tournament slot.
The CFTC license is a structural asset that separates Calci from polymarkets that run on blockchain infrastructure, settle positions in cryptocurrencies, and operate without US regulatory approval.
While Polymarket is faster and more internationally accessible, it cannot reliably market itself to institutional allocators who require regulated counterparties. This credibility gap is the direct cause of the $25 billion spread between the companies’ current fundraising goals.
Co-founders Tarek Mansour, a former trader at Citadel Securities, and Luana López Lara, a quantitative finance expert and MIT classmate, launched Karsi in 2018, building on this very regulatory position.
On June 24, Mansour confirmed on CNBC that Kalsi was considering the possibility of an IPO, but said it was unlikely to go public before 2027. Speculation of an IPO surrounding Kalsi has been circulating since the beginning of this year, but this is the first confirmed confirmation by the CEO on record.
According to FT, @Kalshi is negotiating a funding round of about $40 billion, nearly double the $22 billion valuation it secured in May.
CEO Tarek Mansour also ruled out a debut this year, but said IPO talks of the company’s size were inevitable.
— Sandmark (@sandmark_news) June 25, 2026
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Growth rate and World Cup catalysts
Monthly trading volume on Karshi’s platform recently exceeded $17 billion, up from about $5 billion a year ago and more than tripling in 12 months.
According to Bernstein Research, Karshi’s monthly trading volume in May 2026 was $17.9 billion, while Polymarket’s was $7.1 billion, with Karshi’s market share at 57% and Polymarket’s 22.7%. On an annualized basis, Karshi’s trading volume reached approximately $178 billion by April 2026.
The 2026 World Cup will be an important accelerator in the short term. DeFi Rate estimates that Americans will trade over $2.5 billion in the entire 2026 FIFA World Cup prediction market, with over $1.47 billion traded in Kalsi alone in a base scenario.
Bernstein called the tournament a “watershed moment” for the sector. Large events like this help legitimize momentum-based fundraising conversations, but also focus short-term returns into a window that ends when the final whistle blows.
Polymarket’s World Cup market has come under intense scrutiny over its integrity and liquidity, a dynamic that further sharpens Carsi’s argument for regulatory differentiation.
The May 2026 Series F was a $1 billion round with participation from Coatue Management, Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest, valuing the company at $22 billion. The current $40 billion goal would almost double in a matter of weeks if completed in the third quarter of 2026, as reported.
With annual revenue of about $2 billion, the $40 billion figure means a revenue multiple of about 20x, which Finimize notes is “priced more like an exchange infrastructure than a consumer app.”
(Source: Karshi)
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Bull case, base case, and bear case in evaluation
Bull case: The Supreme Court upholds the CFTC preemption, Kalsi’s sports contract remains in place, 2026 World Cup trading volume pushes the monthly figure past $20 billion, and the company is IPOing at a currency infrastructure multiple that dwarfs its undisclosed price of $40 billion. The polymarket gap will widen further as institutional investors concentrate in regulated venues.
Base case: Legal battle drags on into 2027 without a final verdict, volume slows after the World Cup, Kalsi closes round at or near $40 billion on the strength of regulatory moat and long IPO story, but operates in a gray area where state-level enforcement remains risky.
Bear case: Federal court ruling narrows CFTC preemption rights, forcing Calci to limit or restructure sports contracts. Monthly trading volumes have fallen sharply since their World Cup peak, annual revenue is well below $2 billion, and a 20x revenue multiple looks like an adventurous bet that misprices the consequences of regulation.
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After the World Cup, a $40 billion valuation hunt ensues for Kalsi: Is the market’s predicted valuation true? The post appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
