The most high-conviction Bitcoin holders realized total losses of approximately $2.4 billion in the 48-hour window ending June 5, 2026, as the spot price breached the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP). On-chain analysis shows that the level acts as the last structural support in an intact bull market.
This breach is consistent with widespread risk-off repricing across global equities, liquidations of long positions totaling over $2 billion across derivatives markets, and a Fear and Greed Index reading of 12/100, with market sentiment in territory last seen during the COVID-19 crash and FTX collapse in November 2022.
The analytical question is no longer whether this constitutes a significant Bitcoin downturn event. The question is whether the current long-term holder (LTH) distribution pattern reflects a deterioration in belief as the cycle ends, or the kind of painful but finite flush that has historically preceded a months-long recovery.
While Bitcoin price has fallen to $62,000 from recent highs around $69,000, the short-term holders realized price (STH-SOR) indicator shows that short-term holders are selling at a loss. This on-chain indicator suggests that weak hands are exiting, but historically it could lead to… pic.twitter.com/WApSrH6o4N
— Onchain Insights (@OnchainIns5699) June 5, 2026
Price violation realized by LTH-SOPR and STH: What on-chain data really shows
The crypto market has been hit by a fire sale, as evidenced by the long-term holder expense return (LTH-SOPR) below 1.0. This suggests that coins held for more than 155 days are selling at a loss.
This is a rare occurrence in bull markets, which typically show deep lows, as we saw in January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022. According to the data, about 26% of recent Bitcoin sales were from holders who bought for more than $90,000, highlighting a shift from accumulation to greater distribution to long-term holders.
CryptoQuant describes this stage as an on-chain capitulation event, with the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP) indicator indicating Bitcoin is in a “deep fire sale zone” (where the coin is trading at a deep discount). While this environment may attract value hunters, past cycles show that this situation can last for weeks or months without a clear price bottom.
The market is currently down 30-35% from its peak level, a range that has historically excluded late entrants without ending the overall uptrend, but it remains unclear whether this stage indicates a deep correction or a peak.
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Supply losses, MVRV Z-scores, and broader composite signals
If a long-term holder transfers $BTC to an exchange
Check out this week’s chart below 👇 pic.twitter.com/3uV9H2jU5C
— Glassnode (@glassnode) June 4, 2026
Beyond LTH-SOPR, secondary on-chain indicators indicate capitulation without confirming the market bottom. Glassnode data shows that the MVRV Z-score is around -1.5 standard deviations, or around the $62,000 to $65,000 support zone that marked accumulation territory in past cycles.
Although a significant percentage of Bitcoin supply is currently in losses, similar to the situation seen during the capitulation in late 2022, these indicators do not confirm that the sell-off is drying up.
Furthermore, although the Realized Cap HODL Wave shows turnover in a 1-3 month cohort, long-term holders are still concentrated, distinguishing this stage from the depth of an early bear market.
Identification of a sustainable floor will require a reduction in net outflows of LTH, continued closure above STH-RP, and stabilization of supply-in-loss rates, all of which have not yet been established.
Three Scenarios: What Happens Next at the Bitcoin Realized Price Threshold?
$BTC This decline will eliminate most of the liquidity below.
We will slowly walk towards the Big Flash during April.
The region’s largest liquidity cluster is located at about $83,000 above the local high.
Below, clearly there’s still plenty of profit in the $60,000 local minimum area… pic.twitter.com/VwVcE3WQ0l
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) June 5, 2026
Bullish Case: STH-RP recovers at daily closing prices over the next 5-10 sessions, driven by positive ETF flows and slowing LTH spending, similar to the recoveries in March 2020 and late 2022. The $62,000-$65,000 range has held steady, indicating absorption rather than market weakness. Given macro stability, the price target could reach $85,000-$92,000 within 60-90 days.
Base case: Similar to the previous accumulation phase, once the distribution of the LTH cohort is complete, Bitcoin stabilizes between $60,000 and $68,000 in 4 to 8 weeks. Confirming signals include flattening of daily realized losses and positive ETF flows increasing without price spikes.
Bearish Case: A sustained daily close below the $60,000 support could trigger a secondary capitulation and a fall to the $52,000-55,000 range, which would represent a 45-50% drawdown. Signals for this scenario include a deterioration in the Fear and Greed Index, continued ETF net outflows, and an LTH-SOPR below 0.90 indicating a transition to bear market conditions.
A key indicator to monitor is whether the daily LTH realized losses start to compress, indicating that distributions are being depleted. The lack of compression suggests that yielding is in progress.
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Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing fair and transparent reporting. This article is intended to provide accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, so we recommend that you verify the information yourself and consult a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
Daniel Frances is a technical writer and Web3 educator specializing in macroeconomics and DeFi mechanisms. A crypto native since 2017, Daniel leverages his background in on-chain analytics to write evidence-based reports and detailed guides. He holds certifications from The Blockchain Council and is dedicated to providing “information acquisition” that breaks through the market hype and finds real-world blockchain utility.
