Bitcoin prices soared above $75,000 on Wednesday as traders recalibrated what it meant in the wake of the Iran conflict and an unusually expanded derivatives market. Price trends, positioning data, and real-world tests of Bitcoin as a payments rail show that the market values the token as more than a volatile bet against technology risk.
Bitcoin prices hovered around $74,000 to $75,000 as of April 15, extending a rebound that started from February’s lows of around $60,000. The move has pushed the asset up about 23% from its lows and around 3% for the week, even as broader macro and geopolitical headlines remain tense.
The spot market is currently facing stiff resistance in the $75,000 to $76,000 range, which several analysts say is the upper bound of the two-month range.
In the short term, traders base their outlook around a simple line in the sand. According to data from Bitcoin Magazine Pro, if Bitcoin price can maintain support around $71,000 and firmly break above $76,000, the momentum model will start pointing towards a break into the high $70,000 range and even $80,000 in the coming weeks.
A failure in this range will keep the range intact, leading to further declines towards $70,000 and the low $60,000s where the final leg of the rally begins.
Derivatives flash bottoming pattern in Bitcoin price
Beneath the spot charts, the futures market speaks to deep skepticism. The average 30-day funding rate for perpetual swaps has been negative for 46 consecutive days, consistent with the expansion in negative funding seen near the bottom of the bear market in late 2022, according to research firm K33.
This means that traders with long positions in perpetual futures are collecting fees from shorts even as prices rise.
Vettle Lunde, head of research at K33, points out that similar situations such as rising prices, rising open interest, and negative funding across daily, weekly, and monthly windows have been consolidating, appearing near the lows and then resolving at the highs.
The company argues that this increases the likelihood of a classic short squeeze occurring as bears with heavy positions scramble to cover if prices break out. In recent history, there have only been two periods of extended 30-day negative funding: March-May 2020 and June-August 2021.
Iran conflict changes the story
The Iran war has become a melting pot for new narratives about what Bitcoin is and why investors should hold it. Since U.S. and Israeli airstrikes began in late February, Bitcoin prices have risen about 12% while the S&P 500 index has fallen and gold sold off, a pattern that contradicts the old view that Bitcoin is an extension of high-beta tech stocks.
Matt Hogan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, argues that the market is currently valuing Bitcoin as two financial products at the same time.
The first part of the paper is still the familiar “digital gold” pitch, with Bitcoin competing for a slice of a multi-trillion dollar store of value market.
The second phase, which investors have long treated as distant, is Bitcoin’s out-of-the-money call option, which is evolving into a working currency and payment layer, Hogan said. In this framework, disputes do more than just add volatility to risk assets. This increases the likelihood that values will travel through neutral rails outside of a single state’s direct control.
Bitcoin live test in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s decision to require Bitcoin tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz turns that abstract option into a living, if imperfect, example. The country announced it would introduce a $1-per-barrel Bitcoin fee on crude oil shipments, which could amount to around $20 million in payments per day at current prices. This move puts BTC and Bitcoin prices in the middle of a spot transaction tied to one of the world’s most strategic chokepoints.
Hogan links the changes to the weaponization of traditional payment rails, such as Russia’s removal from the SWIFT network in 2022, which French officials liken to a financial nuclear attack. In a world where sanctions and correspondent banking are instruments of national strategy, permissionless networks that clear value without central control look different to both allies and non-aligners.
All of this supports the current Bitcoin price rally towards $75,000, where charts and geopolitics are starting to intersect on the same line. At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is $74,860.
