Over the past two months, Bitcoin (BTC) price has tried in vain to regain its $80,000 valuation, with the price peaking at around $76,000 during this period. Interestingly, one market analyst recently explained that this is due to significant price levels acting as resistance.
Adjusted realized prices create resistance to recovery attempts
In a March 28 post on X, on-chain analyst Dirkforst highlighted the underlying dynamics behind Bitcoin’s recent problems. This analysis is based on readings from BTC realized prices excluding over 7 years of supply. It is a metric that reflects the cost base of circulating supply, but excludes those over 7 years old, and is intended to exclude diamond hands (i.e. both lost and immovable BTC).
❌ BTC is still unable to exceed its realized price excluding inactive supply.
This chart shows a cost basis that excludes supply older than seven years to better reflect the supply actually in circulation.
⁰— 💡 This approach rules out both lost… pic.twitter.com/RZ6vH1oSLA— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) March 28, 2026
This correction realization price currently sits at around $72,500, and Bitcoin has struggled to see sustained price movement above this level for the past two months. Dirkforst cites past historical cycles and argues that similar situations often coincide with long-term bearish phases.
According to Market Quant, Bitcoin has previously spent six to 10 months below this investor cost threshold during extended bear markets without a definitive recovery. This indicates that despite a bear market that has already lasted six months, the Bitcoin market could experience several more months of negative price growth due to a repeat of historical patterns.
BTC market overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,629, reflecting an increase of almost 1% over the past day. Interestingly, according to CoinMarketCap data, the BTC market has hardly moved over the past month, with a downside deviation of 1.27%. According to renowned market analyst Ali Martinez, the premium cryptocurrency has attracted the attention of traders over the last month, likely due to the high price volatility observed.
Bitcoin’s open interest, or outstanding trading contracts, reached about $30 billion in mid-March, the highest level seen in 2026, according to data from CryptoQuant. Notably, most of these trades are taking place on the Binance exchange, where traders recently initiated an additional $829 million in open interest.
Following the struggles of Bitcoin prices since October 2025, the market needs a bullish reversal in defining factors such as macroeconomics, liquidity availability, and demand presence to begin a recovery. However, until market conditions point to a more optimistic future, the Bitcoin market could indeed be in for some tough times over the next few months.
Featured images from iStock, charts from Tradingview
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