After breaking through a key resistance level, Bitcoin (BTC) is looking to retest this area as support that could challenge new highs. Analysts asserted that this recall holds the key to the next big move for the flagship cryptocurrency.
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Bitcoin Weekly focuses on new target
In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has regained the upper bound of its multi-month price range, retesting the $94,000 area for the first time in almost a month. The cryptocurrency has been trading sideways since a correction in late November, when the price hit an eight-month low of $80,600.
During this period, BTC has been hovering between the $86,200 and $93,500 levels on a weekly basis, facing strong resistance near the mid-zone of the range. However, the flagship cryptocurrency was able to close above the $90,500 resistance last week, allowing a move towards a major ceiling.
Analysts Recto Capital noted that Bitcoin was rejected from the $93,500 area for much of the fourth quarter, highlighting that the $93,500 area is a critical level for the cryptocurrency’s future price movements.
Now, price is once again challenging this level, and “this is not only high resistance in the weekly range, but also confluence resistance with the multi-week downtrend that has plagued prices since its formation in mid-October 2025.”
Recto Capital noted that this level could act as macro resistance as the price has fallen below the closing price of the 12-month candlestick. “In a four-year cycle, such resistance lines tend to resist prices for about three years and are eventually broken at the halving,” he explained.
He added that if BTC begins a bear market, “this means the price could rise above $93,500 in the coming months, consolidate a macro low, and then continue declining.” As a result, it will only be successful in regaining this level in 2028, during the next halving.
The most important technical tests for BTC
Despite the potential macro resistance, the analyst asserted that whether the $93,500 level is regained weekly or rejected in the short term is “less important than the general direction that BTC appears to be trying to follow, which means BTC wants to move back above $93,500.”
A weekly close above this level and a subsequent post-breakout retest confirms a successful breakout from the weekly range and weekly downtrend.
Remarkably, the cryptocurrency performed similarly during the recovery period in Q2-Q3 2025, where the price broke out of the downtrend, regained the $93,500 area, and retested for several weeks before moving to higher levels.
This would also lay the foundation for a challenge to the converging bull market exponential moving average (EMA) that was lost during the Q4 2025 correction. According to the chart, the 50-week EMA and 21-week EMA are currently near the $97,000-$98,000 level.
“History suggests there is a good chance the price will break above these EMAs,” Recto Capital asserted, but also cautioned that this suggests Bitcoin will not be able to successfully convert these levels into new support.
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“If price does indeed break below the EMA, retesting the EMA as downside resistance during the crossover will be a bearish signal,” he warned. As a result, the “most important technical milestone” for the flagship cryptocurrency will be the regaining of the EMA as support to confirm bullish market momentum.
Nevertheless, he concluded, “For BTC to approach these EMAs, a breakout of the range and breakout of the weekly downtrend is first essential.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $93,330, up 4.8% on a weekly basis.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com
